The biggest problem with this plan is how to ensure our intentions are not discovered by those financial speculators!
Besides that, there's another issue: how to guarantee the price will indeed collapse. If the soybean price doesn't crash by the deadline, we'll be the ones suffering heavy losses! Competition breeds motivation. These days, young Swift has been poring over financial books day and night, otherwise, he wouldn't be able to compete with Hao Jianguo, this Chinese man.
It's not that young Swift hasn't achieved some success. He quickly raised this crucial issue within the plan.
The most critical step in this plan is to acquire soybeans through short selling, then return them to the futures market, thereby fleecing the financial speculators. Then, when the price collapses, we'll buy back all the soybeans in one go.
But short selling itself involves acquiring soybeans from financial institutions. If different financial institutions collude even slightly, the entire plan will be completely exposed.
At that point, the international speculators will hold the initiative. As long as they grit their teeth and refuse to let the soybean price drop, and the deadline for short selling arrives, requiring all parties to return the corresponding amount of soybeans, the Western Wild Horse Fund will be the one to collapse.
In summary, as soon as those international speculators discover the issue here, the entire plan will fall apart.
"They won't discover it, because that big shot will help cover for you, preventing those international speculators and financial institutions from finding out!" Hao Jianguo muttered to himself, but of course, he dared not say such a thing. He merely said, "Firstly, different financial institutions maintain confidentiality, and they rarely share such information. Moreover, we can purchase across borders, buying soybean futures from Europe or South America. This will further reduce the possibility of discovery."
"Secondly, even if it is discovered, they might not necessarily hold the price. We can then simply announce that the Chinese procurement delegation has refused to purchase. Hit by this news, they will likely collapse!"
"At the same time, there are more than 10 different institutions speculating on soybeans. If even one institution decides to run, others will follow suit, and a collapse will be inevitable!" Hao Jianguo stated.
"But if all the international speculators cooperate and hold out for three months, it's still uncertain!"
"We can be ruthless and buy futures for six months. It's a battle of patience!"
"Heh, after six months, the interest alone will be 30%. What profit will we make? And even enduring for six months is not an impossibility!"
Seeing that young Swift and Hao Jianguo were about to argue, Boss Huang waved his hand and said to Hao Jianguo, "Jianguo, give me an accurate assessment of our chances of winning."
"At least 70% chance, but I think it's 80%!!" Hao Jianguo hesitated for a moment, then gave this figure!
"I think at most 60%!" young Swift said somewhat unconvinced.
"Whether it's 70%, 60%, or 80%, it all indicates that the probability of success is over fifty percent!" Boss Huang gently tapped the table and said, "Forget it. With a more than fifty percent chance, we can take the gamble!"
Finally, Boss Huang made the final decision.
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"Boss Tie, your business is growing bigger and bigger. You don't even come for our weekly entertainment anymore!" In a KTV private room, a man with a large belly, holding a heavily made-up and voluptuous woman and engaging in indescribable acts, said.
"Alas, you guys don't know how much pressure I'm under lately. The price of soybeans rises every day. It goes up by a hundred today and two hundred tomorrow. The more it rises, the more hair I lose. I'm almost bald!" The boss, surnamed Tie, said dejectedly. Even with a long-legged beauty beside him, he had no interest in touching her. He normally enjoyed this sort of thing.
"Oh, I've heard about this too. My brother-in-law is also involved in soybean processing. You know, he's a good-for-nothing. He gambled away a lot of family property when he was young. Recently, he's been clamoring to enter the soybean processing industry again, wanting to build some high-tech oxidized soybean oil production line. He says soybeans can be made into lubricants for aircraft and things like that. He invested 3 million yuan in it, not only completely emptying his father's pockets but also draining 1 million from our family's savings."
"Damn it, I almost divorced him yesterday. This life is unbearable. The wealth I painstakingly accumulated over ten years was all given to that guy!" This boss also complained curses.
"Nonsense, most of the wealth you accumulated was probably spent in this nightclub!" Boss Tie retorted.
"Fine, I can't be bothered to talk about it with you. But soybeans have indeed been rising crazily recently. Originally, my brother-in-law could earn tens of thousands a month, and I could still hope he'd pay back my coffin money. But in the past month, he's lost 100,000 directly!"
"No, if raw material prices rise, your brother-in-law should also raise his prices. How could he lose so much?" another man in white asked.
"It's not a matter of whether the price rises or not, it's that we can't get the goods. All the soybeans at the port have been diverted, and our ship that went to pick up soybeans reportedly had procedural issues, causing a delay of 20 days. Now, the latest batch of soybeans is still drifting at sea, and it will take at least another 10 days to reach the port, not to mention delivering the goods to us."
"Alas, without raw materials, we can't produce anything. Several signed orders have been breached, and the liquidated damages alone have driven my brother-in-law to the brink of hanging himself!" the man said helplessly.
"I told you long ago that soybean prices were bound to rise!" the man in white said with a hint of smugness.
"Alas, don't say any more. We all regret it deeply. If we had listened to you earlier and stocked up hundreds of tons when the price was 3000 yuan per ton, we would have made hundreds of thousands of yuan in profit in the blink of an eye!" Boss Tie said with deep regret.
In fact, about two months ago, when the soybean price had just risen from 2200 yuan RMB per ton to 3000 yuan RMB per ton, a jump of 800 yuan, many domestic soybean processing enterprises were stunned.
It was at that time that this man in white confidently assured them that soybean prices would continue to rise in the coming years, and they would at least reach 6000 yuan per ton, and even 8,000 yuan per ton was not impossible.
At that time, these two bosses naturally did not believe him. They thought an 800 yuan increase was already exaggerated, how could it possibly increase by another 3000 yuan? That would be a threefold increase in price!
It was impossible for it to rise so wildly; this 3000 yuan might already be the peak, and it would plummet in a few days.
Then, it was now. They watched as the soybean price rose from 3000 yuan per ton to 4000 yuan per ton, another 1000 yuan per ton increase, and they were all numb.
If they had really stocked up hundreds of tons of soybeans two months ago, they could have made a profit of 1000 yuan per ton of soybeans. This single transaction would have netted them hundreds of thousands of yuan in profit, equivalent to two or three years of hard work.
"Old He, I remember you saying that soybean prices would still rise? And that they would go up to over 6000 yuan?" Boss Tie's heart stirred as he recalled what Old He had said, and he couldn't help but ask.
"That's right, but not to over 6000, but to over 8000, more than double the current price!" Old He said.
"Impossible, that's too exaggerated! How did you make that judgment? How did you know?" Both of them exclaimed.
"It's not me saying it, it's foreign experts. If you don't believe me, look at this report!" Old He took out a mobile phone from his pocket, entered the Mobile Dream Network, and said, "Look, today's front-page news on Mobile Dream Network is a report published by Fortune, the largest financial magazine in foreign countries."
"They predict that the weather this year will be colder than last year, further reducing global soybean production. The main producing region, the United States, will see a 20% decrease in output. In any case, within two months, the price in the futures market will soar from $450 to $600."
"Then we'll see the actual climate conditions this year. If the temperature indeed drops and production decreases as expected, it's highly possible it will rise directly to $900."
"See, it's not me saying this, it's foreign experts, the world's most professional financial scholars. They are all foreigners, how could they be wrong?" Old He said.
"But I heard a teacher who teaches economics in the next village say there's a problem here. Seven or eight years ago, there was also a reduction in output, but the price only increased by about 10%, not as exaggerated as this year. It seems like some financial institutions are setting up a scheme, so don't be fooled!" the plump boss said.
"You're talking about that Teacher Tong, who is he? I don't know which no-name university he graduated from, and he teaches physical education at school. What does he know about finance... Never mind, I won't talk about that guy with you. Brothers, I have an idea for making money, want to hear it?" Boss Tie said.
"What idea?" everyone asked.
"Look, regardless of whether it will rise to 9000 yuan per ton in the future, but around 6000 yuan per ton is basically a sure thing. After all, we've all seen how scarce soybeans are in the entire county. This is a factual situation!"
"Can we try to collude and stock up hundreds of tons at once, and then sell them all when the price reaches 6000 yuan per ton... Coincidentally, I have a grain warehouse in my hometown that can hold over a thousand tons of soybeans!"
"This..."
"Hundreds of tons, that's over a million yuan in investment!" These three bosses are not very wealthy. They are actually just small bosses. Asking them to invest millions of their net worth in speculation makes them hesitate.
Just then, Boss Fatty's phone rang. He answered it, and after a while, his entire face fell. He cursed, "Not a penny, and I won't give a penny either. If you talk about money again, I'll divorce you!" and then he hung up the phone.
"What happened?" the other two asked curiously.
"What else could it be? It's still that damned brother-in-law. To complete an order, he actually tried to buy goods at 4500 yuan per ton, but he has no money, and he has emptied out the old man. So he wants to borrow 200,000 yuan from me. Damn it..." Fatty cursed, but the other two's eyes lit up, as if they had already made a decision!